The Aliso Viejo real estate market, part of the Orange County housing market, saw a decrease in median sales price in the most recent tracking period, likely as a result of less expensive properties dominating the market. According to CoreLogic, which tracks nationwide home price indexes, the median sales price of a property in the region fell by approximately two and a half percent in the most recent period for which detailed statistics are available. October 2010 marked the second consecutive month where the year-over-year median price fell, resuming a trend of thirty-seven months of declines which had been interrupted by eight months of increases. This decrease in the average sales price can be attributed partially to a typical seasonal decline in sales, although many sales in the beginning of the year were driven by the federal housing tax credit. On the other hand, a DataQuick compilation of the data shows a slight uptick in year-over-year median price, while also showing a marginal increase over October 2010’s numbers. However, compared to the rest of the Golden State, Orange County has been faring relatively well. The Orange County median price is well above the bottom of the market for the region and well above the current median for the rest of the state, although it is still substantially below the average sales price from the peak of the market.
The median sales price decline seen among Aliso Viejo and other Orange County homes for sale may be an indication of things to come, partially because of the expected higher pace of foreclosures in the New Year. Some experts are expecting that the number of short sales and foreclosures will increase in upcoming months as banks seek to eliminate excess inventory. However, one local analyst in particular believes that the number of initial notices of default will increase although the completion of foreclosure sales will spike in upcoming months. Similarly, the number of short sales and similar distressed property sales are expected to increase in 2011. This same expert, who was interviewed in the Orange County Register, believes that the overall housing market will improve even as foreclosures peak.